World imports in the first half of 2023
In the first half of 2023, world import growth was fastest in regions that export fuels disproportionately.
The WTO explained that this occurred because countries in these regions have had abundant export revenues since the start of the war in Ukraine.
These are the CIS (33.7 percent), the Middle East (12.2 percent) and Africa (4.6 percent).
Other regions recorded declines, including Europe (-1.9 percent), Asia (-2.0 percent), North America (-2.8 percent) and South America (-4.2 percent).
The WTO expects import volume growth to turn positive in Asia and North America in the second half of 2023, while imports from Europe should remain weak.
Although Asia’s merchandise export volume has been flat for some time, it remains well above its level in 2019 thanks to a surge in China‘s manufacturing shipments during the pandemic.
World imports
Asia increased its external purchases 6.9 percent between 2019 and 2023, while North America’s soared 9.8 percent and Europe’s rose 4.4 percent.
Imports also rose sharply in resource-exporting regions, including South America (9.5 percent), the Middle East (11.9 percent) and the CIS (19.1 percent), but declined slightly in Africa (-0.6 percent).
Some country-by-country developments may seem counterintuitive. For example, while Asia’s imports in the first half of 2023 declined 2.3 percent year-on-year, China’s imports increased 2 percent.
Much of the decline in imports in Asia was due to other countries in the region, such as Japan (-2.0%), Singapore (-10.0%), Malaysia (-5.6%), and Thailand (-10.3%), among others.
Meanwhile, U.S. and non-EU imports fell 3.7% and 4.2%, respectively.
Coleman Nee, senior economist at the WTO, said Thursday that there has been some concern that slower Chinese growth could weigh on world trade through lower import demand.
This could happen if China’s economic slowdown worsens, but so far this has not been the case.
In fact, China contributed 0.3 percentage points to trade volume growth in 1H2023, while the United States and the European Union subtracted 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points, respectively.
