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Global unemployment will exceed 2019 level in 2022

Global unemployment will stand at 207 million in 2022, exceeding its 2019 level by some 21 million, the International Labor Organization (ILO) has projected.

Based on the latest economic growth forecasts, the ILO estimates that global total hours worked in 2022 will remain nearly 2% below their pre-pandemic level when adjusted for population growth.

This last figure corresponds to a deficit of 52 million equivalent hours of full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour work week).

This outlook represents a substantial deterioration from projections made in the previous edition of the World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends published in June 2021, when the shortfall in working hours relative to the fourth quarter of 2019 was projected to would reduce to less than 1% in 2022.

Global unemployment

In general, recovery patterns vary significantly across regions, countries, and sectors.

Since the start of the recovery, job growth trends in low- and middle-income countries have remained significantly below those seen in richer economies, due in large part to lower vaccination rates and space lower tax rate in developing countries.

Also, according to the ILO, the impact has been particularly serious for developing nations that experienced higher levels of inequality, more divergent working conditions and weaker social protection systems even before the pandemic.

The Covid-19 pandemic dominated the global economy for the second year in 2021, preventing a full and balanced recovery in labor markets.

The pace of recovery in economic activity has largely depended on the degree of virus containment, so the recovery follows different patterns across geographies and sectors.

However, each new outbreak brings setbacks. The ILO said that many decent work gains made before the pandemic have been significantly affected, and pre-existing decent work deficits are clouding prospects for a sustainable recovery in many regions.

So the outlook for the global labor market has deteriorated since the latest ILO projections; a return to pre-pandemic performance is likely to remain elusive for much of the world for years to come.

All these perspectives of global unemployment and other labor aspects were captured by the ILO in its report: World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2022.

 

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