World exports of goods and services would register a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in 2022, projected the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Then the exports would have a rise of 4.8% in 2023.
International trade is an essential part of the globalization process. For many years, the governments of most countries have increasingly opened their economies to international trade, whether through the multilateral trading system, enhanced regional cooperation, or domestic reform programs.
Thus, world exports would go from 27 trillion 635 billion dollars in 2020 to 31 trillion 144 billion in 2021, and then to 32 trillion 625 billion.
Regarding exports only of goods, these would increase 13.2% in 2022, to 24 trillion 631,000 million dollars, and would rise 3.7% in 2023, to 25 trillion 532,000 million.
In particular, the unit value of manufacturing exports would rise 8.8% in 2022 and 2.9% in 2023.
This last percentage change corresponds to manufactured goods exported by advanced economies.
According to IMF estimates, oil prices would go from $69.07 per barrel in 2021 to $106.83 in 2022 and $92.63 in 2023. This percentage change is the average of UK, Dubai Fateh and West Brent crude oil prices. Texas Intermediate.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Production disruptions related to war, sanctions, and severely impaired access to cross-border payment systems will disrupt trade flows, particularly for energy and food.
For the IMF, the magnitude of these changes depends not only on the drop in exports as a result of the conflict and the sanctions, but also on the elasticity of global supply and demand.
Although the price of oil has increased considerably, the availability of capacity in other countries and the release of oil reserves will probably mean that these increases will be contained in the medium term.
By contrast, the relatively inflexible infrastructure needed to transport gas (pipelines are more important for gas than for oil, for example) means that global supply can be less easily adjusted, raising the prospect of higher prices. high for a longer time.