The world exports trend of products in the last decade shows ups and downs and the prospect of a contraction in 2025, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

About the past trend: external merchandise sales increased from US$19 trillion 013 billion in 2014 to US$24 trillion 431 billion in 2024.

This value is expressed in current U.S. dollars and as free on board (FOB) value.

On the outlook: the WTO projects that the volume of world merchandise trade will fall at a year-on-year rate of 0.2% in 2025, then grow by 2.5% in 2026.

World exports trend

Over the past two years, overall changes were modest. However, some product categories showed strong variations.

For example, trade in office and telecommunications equipment grew 10% in 2024. The previous year, this category had fallen 6%. In contrast, trade in automotive products fell 1% in 2024, after rising 20% in 2023.

Prices had a limited impact on nominal trade growth. Most of the variations are explained by changes in traded quantities.

The following shows the trend of world exports of products, in billions of current dollars, according to UNCTAD data:

• 2014: 19,013.
• 2015: 16,565.
• 2016: 16,050.
• 2017: 17,738.
• 2018: 19,547.
• 2019: 19,008.
• 2020: 17,648.
• 2021: 22,290.
• 2022: 24,904.
• 2023: 23,886.
• 2024: 24,431.

Food trade 

Trade in agricultural products rose 3% in value. This increase was in line with the 4% global increase in the average dollar price of agricultural products, according to World Bank data.

However, this growth was driven by higher prices for beverages. These include coffee, tea and cocoa, whose average cost increased by 64% in 2024.

In contrast, food prices – excluding beverages – fell by 8% on average. This suggests that traded quantities of most agricultural products grew over the past year.