Global electric vehicle sales will dominate the market in the next decade, according to business projections.

According to BloombergNEF, electric vehicle sales will be 41 million units in 2030 and 75 million units in 2040.

An electric vehicle (EV) uses one or more electric motors for propulsion.

These projections imply a penetration rate of 44% and 75%, respectively, of all passenger vehicles sold. 

The forecasts consider both battery electric passenger vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

Worldwide electric vehicle sales

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 13.7 million electric vehicles were sold worldwide in 2013.

The following are the main markets for these sales in 2023, in millions of units:

• China: 8.1.
• Europe: 3.2.
• United States: 1.4.
• Rest of the world: 1.0.

Today, the most expensive part of an electric vehicle is the battery, which represents up to 50% of the price of the electric propulsion system, depending on the technology used. 

Lithium-ion batteries are the most widely used technology in electric vehicles due to their high energy density and increased power per unit mass of battery.

The shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles can have a significant impact on the automotive assembly and parts manufacturing industries. In addition, this change implies important modifications in the powertrain, i.e., the system that drives the vehicle.

For one thing, the powertrains in electric vehicles are very different from conventional ones. This means that producing an electric vehicle will probably require much less manpower than manufacturing a similar one with a gasoline or diesel engine. Thus, companies must adapt to new demand and adjust their production processes.

The IEA projects the following electric vehicle sales worldwide in 2024, in millions of units:

• China: 10.1.
• Europe: 3.4.
• United States: 1.7.
• Rest of the world: 1.4.
• World total: 16.6.

Factors driving purchases

According to EV Volumes‘ October 2023 global forecast for battery electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars and light commercial vehicles, sales are expected to be approximately 46 million units in 2030, increasing to approximately 75 million units in 2035.

This represents a penetration rate of 45% and 68%, respectively, of all passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold. 

La empresa Arcadium Lithium refiere que el fuerte crecimiento de la demanda de vehículos eléctricos en 2023 fue impulsado por los siguientes factores:

• Aumento de la oferta de productos de los fabricantes de automóviles.
• Una mayor conciencia y adopción por parte de los consumidores.
• Incentivos anunciados por los gobiernos nacionales y regionales.
• Subsidios y regulaciones más estrictas para el ahorro de combustible/emisiones de dióxido de carbono para apoyar los esfuerzos de electrificación.