The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) considered that the US industry will have a higher growth than the US GDP in 2022, benefiting from the Russian war, considering the projections of the Blue Chip consultancy.
Regarding the external sector, the SHCP projected in the General Criteria for Economic Policy 2023 that US economic growth will continue to contribute dynamism to the Mexican economy.
In line with the main analysts and international organizations, the growth of economic activity in that country at the end of 2022 is expected to be positive due to the strong growth in employment, which has an impact on the consumption of goods and services.
In addition, the SHCP anticipates that industrial production will have a greater dynamism than GDP due to the worldwide substitution of some Russian products that, due to the war conflict, are no longer in demand as part of the sanctions imposed by several countries.
In addition to the above, it said, the low level of inventories of motor vehicles and other industrial products, together with the reduction of logistics problems and shipping costs in supply chains, will generate an increase in demand to recover the desired level of inventories, thereby boosting industrial production during the second half of 2022.
However, U.S. industrial production is more closely related to Mexico’s GDP, even more so than Mexico’s GDP.
Thus, the Ministry of Finance expects Mexico‘s non-oil exports to show a positive performance that will benefit manufacturing and trade-related services.
In this way, the good performance of U.S. industry production will also have a positive influence on the growth estimate of domestic economic activity for this year.
Additionally, the Mexican government expects the level of gross fixed investment in Mexico to show a good performance for the remainder of the year given the volumes of capital imports, and public investment in infrastructure will continue to positively influence the non-residential construction component, mainly in the southern states of Mexico.