The economy of the United States will continue on the path of recovery, driven by the strengthening of consumption due to the support of the fiscal stimulus programs in said country, projected the Council for the Stability of the Financial System (CESF) of Mexico, in its base scenario.
At the same time, the CESF’s perspective considers that the growth of the inflation rate of the US economy will be in line with what is expected by the market and will be transitory, converging to its target level in the expected period.
In addition, its base scenario forecasts that the country’s industrial production will show a favorable performance in the rest of the year, and this dynamism will continue during the projection period, although with more moderate growth.
Finally, the Federal Reserve would keep the Federal Funds rate at accommodative levels until it guarantees that real variables return to their long-term levels.
In this context, the capital markets do not present new episodes of stress, and their growth will be consistent with what is observed in periods of macroeconomic stability.
On the other hand, the projections of the base scenario consider that world economic activity continues its recovery, supported by the favorable progress of vaccination against Covid-19.
Due to the above, it adds in the same calculation, the restrictions on mobility and on productive activities implemented to contain the pandemic are gradually reduced during 2021, which will allow both international supply chains and international trade flows are reestablished, which will alleviate the pressures on the prices of raw materials.
In addition, activities such as tourism would recover the levels and dynamics prior to the pandemic, which will support economic recovery at the international level.
Finally, it is assumed that geopolitical tensions in the world remain limited, allowing uncertainty in international financial markets to remain low.
Meanwhile, the Mexican economy faces a positive advance in vaccination and a reduction in restrictions against Covid-19, which will support a more homogeneous recovery among the various productive sectors.
At the same time, exports will maintain their growth rate given the good performance of industrial production in the United States, which will allow Mexico’s economic activity to recover its pre-pandemic levels in the medium term.
In this way, the CESF projects that the unemployment rate will decrease given the decrease in the slack conditions of the economy.
Another forecast indicates that inflation will remain above the target range in the short term and in line with the Bank of Mexico’s outlook.
Due to the above, monetary policy would react to ensure the convergence of inflation, which will occur in the second quarter of 2022.
Due to the orderly adjustment of rates, the peso/dollar and peso/euro exchange rates will remain stable and stock market indicators will show a positive performance.
Finally, the global economic recovery would allow oil prices to remain stable, which will reduce the pressure on Pemex’s finances.