Brazil ranked first among the major coffee exporters in the world in the 2019-2020 cycle, according to data from the World Bank.
The retail market for coffee has changed dramatically over the past decade, with more and more people tending to consume more expensive specialty coffee drinks as their first choice.
Due to both its effects from caffeine and its distinctive flavor, coffee has established itself as one of the most popular beverages in the world, with more than 400,000 million cups consumed each year.
After Brazil (67.9 million bags of 60 kilos), among the large coffee exporters were: Vietnam (29 million), Colombia (14.1 million), Indonesia (10.7 million) and Ethiopia (7.5 million).
In general, supply is affected by many factors in coffee-producing countries, including weather, pest damage, economic conditions, acts of terrorism, as well as efforts by coffee producers to expand or train. cartels or associations.
Furthermore, the political situation in many of the Arabica coffee producing regions, including Africa, Indonesia, and Central and South America, may be volatile, and such instability could affect the ability to buy coffee in those regions.
The World Bank beverage price index was virtually stable in the first quarter of 2021, but it is almost 6% higher than a year ago.
The movements in the index reflect a strengthening in the price of Arabica coffee and, to a lesser extent, gains in Robusta and tea, although the latter has been the most volatile.
According to the World Bank, the index is expected to post small gains in 2021 and 2022.
Arabica and Robusta coffee prices were fairly stable during the first quarter of 2021, following volatility in the second half of 2020 due to supply chain disruptions related to the pandemic and the likelihood of the Brazilian harvest affected by frost.
However, world coffee production for the current crop year is likely to grow 6%, which, combined with an estimated increase in consumption of 1.3%, would result in a surplus of almost 9 million bags.
Despite this, early indications of the 2021-22 harvest season point to a sharp reduction in world supplies due to a sharp downward revision of the Brazilian harvest: Brazil’s coffee production may decline by as much as 30 % next season due to adverse weather by some estimates.