The peso appreciates against the dollar at 19.95

The peso closed the week with an appreciation of 0.70% or 14 cents, trading around 19.95 pesos per dollar, the second consecutive week that the peso gained ground, accumulating an appreciation of 3.05 percent.

During the week, the exchange rate touched a minimum of 19.9058 and a maximum of 20.2452 pesos per dollar, piercing the support of 20.00 pesos per dollar and opening the door to an additional appreciation towards the minimum in the year of 19.55 pesos per dollar.

During the week, the weighted index of the dollar closed with a decline of 0.65%, being the largest weekly fall since December, as the expectation that monetary policy in the United States will continue to be expansionary has consolidated, while the government promotes a new package of fiscal stimuli.

Likewise, it is clear that, for US monetary policy makers, possible inflationary pressures arising from the current monetary stance are not a risk in the short term and therefore not a priority.

The peso

The factors that allowed the peso to appreciate during the week were:

First factor

The general weakness of the US dollar.

In a wide basket of main crosses, the only two currencies that closed the week with a depreciation were the Argentine peso with 0.60% and the Peruvian sol with 0.20 percent.

The Mexican peso ranked as the fifteenth most appreciated currency.

The most appreciated currencies were the Chilean peso with 2.06%, the South African rand with 1.98% and the South Korean won with 1.53 percent.

Second factor

In the raw materials market, the price of various commodities continued to rise, mainly energy and industrial metals.

The price of WTI oil closed the week with an increase of 4.91%, around 59.64 dollars per barrel, while metals such as aluminum (+ 3.67%), copper (+ 5.30%), nickel (+ 3.00%) and steel (+7.06) also had significant increases, which also explains why the Chilean peso was the most appreciated currency against the dollar during the week.

It is important to note that in the session on Friday the price of oil had a significant increase close to 2.30 percent.

Banxico

The most relevant event in Mexico was the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico, in which the Governing Board decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to a level of 4.0% unanimously.

The resumption of the cycle of cuts to the interest rate amid conditions of economic slack and the fact that the decision has been taken unanimously increases the probability that Banco de México will continue to cut the interest rate in the coming months.

Grupo Financiero Base estimates that there could be two additional cuts to the interest rate of 25 basis points each, to settle at 3.50% at the end of the year.

It should be noted that in the week between Wednesday 3 and Tuesday 9 February, the net speculative positions awaiting an appreciation of the peso in the Chicago futures market were reduced by 1,385 contracts, reaching 1,483 contracts, each of 500 thousand pesos.

With this, they add up to three weeks that net speculative positions are relatively close to zero, indicating that the market considers that the probabilities of an appreciation or a depreciation of the peso are similar.

On the week, the euro hit a low of 1.2020 and a high of $ 1.2149 per euro.

Finally, the euro peso touched a minimum of 24.1424 and a maximum of 24.4213 pesos per euro.

At the close, the interbank quotes for sale stood at 19.9464 pesos per dollar, 1.3855 dollars per pound and 1.2120 dollars per euro.

 

Gabriela Siller; PhD

Director of Economic-Financial Analysis.

Banco BASE