The soybean trade in the world will grow by 5.0 million tons during the current season of 2021-2022 (October-September), projected the International Cereal Council (IGC).
Worldwide, soy is one of the most important crops and provides oil and protein. More than 300 million metric tons of soy are produced and the top 11 countries produce more than 90% of the world’s soy.
Partly as a consequence of the moderation in expectations compared to the previous year, in the 2021/2022 cycle, soybean trade is expected to grow again (by 5.0 million tons in year-on-year terms) thanks to the expected recovery in demand for soy Asian buyers, and especially from China.
Although the increase in shipments will ultimately depend on the economics of the feed sector, the benefits could be somewhat limited by the increased use of alternatives in a context of changes in the composition of feed preparations, according to the IGC.
In addition to higher feed consumption, total consumption will increase 5%, reaching an unprecedented level of 120.5 million tonnes.
In the rest of Asia, as in other regions (including the EU-27), the anticipated rapeseed / canola shortage would translate into import growth in 2021/2022.
Given the expected decline in US exports, a key feature of world trade in the coming year will likely be increased shipments from South America, especially Brazil.
An unprecedented harvest, competitive prices and improved logistics could see Brazil’s exports grow 9% year-on-year in 2022/2023 (February/January) to reach an unprecedented level of 92.6 million tons.
Meanwhile, the evolution of exports from Argentina (and Paraguay) will probably depend on the prevailing logistical conditions