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El peso cerró la sesión con una fuerte apreciación de 1.34% o 24.6 centavos, cotizando alrededor de 18.11 pesos por dólar, colocándose como una de las divisas más apreciadas durante la jornada, solo por detrás del real brasileño que se apreció 2.14 por ciento.

Foto: Pixabay. Las presiones en contra del peso se han disipado sin necesidad de intervenciones.
Foto: Pixabay. Las presiones en contra del peso se han disipado sin necesidad de intervenciones.

La debilidad generalizada del dólar se deriva de la casi nula probabilidad de que la Fed suba su tasa de referencia el próximo 15 de junio. En consecuencia, se espera que en el corto plazo el tipo de cambio baje hasta su promedio móvil de 100 días, en el nivel de 18.00 pesos por dólar y de ahí al promedio móvil de 50 días, en el nivel de 17.90 pesos por dólar.

Las ganancias del peso también estuvieron favorecidas por una extensión de las ganancias de los precios del petróleo. El WTI cerró la sesión con un avance de 1.97%, luego de alcanzar un nuevo máximo en el año de 51.40 dólares por barril.

La recuperación del crudo se puede atribuir a dos factores, una caída en los inventarios petroleros de Estados Unidos de 3.23 millones de barriles durante la semana pasada y una caída en la producción petrolera de Nigeria, derivado de ataques en la región petrolera Delta.

Entre los principales cruces del dólar, la libra esterlina fue la única divisa que perdió terreno, cerrando con una pérdida de 0.25%, cotizando alrededor de 1.4500 dólares por libra. Se espera que la libra muestre un comportamiento lateral durante las últimas sesiones de la semana, debido a la incertidumbre con respecto al resultado del referéndum del 23 de junio.

En las próximas dos semanas, la posibilidad de que Reino Unido salga de la Unión Europea se convertirá en un riesgo que podría favorecer nuevamente la demanda por activos libres de riesgo y la debilidad de las divisas de economías emergentes.

La reciente apreciación del peso ha traído consigo la especulación de que Banco de México podría mantener sin cambios su tasa de referencia en la reunión de 30 de junio, ya que las presiones en contra de la divisa se han disipado sin necesidad de intervenciones.

No obstante, la decisión de Banxico dependerá de las presiones que pueda enfrentar la paridad peso-dólar durante la segunda mitad de junio y los riesgos que pudiera representar para el objetivo de inflación de 3 por ciento.

Un incremento de entre 25 y 50 puntos base al cierre del mes podría moderar la volatilidad durante el tercer trimestre, no impediría al Banco Central ajustar nuevamente su política monetaria durante la segunda mitad del año. Durante mayo, la inflación general de México se ubicó en 2.6%, mostrando un retroceso mensual de 0.46%.

Durante la sesión, el peso tocó un mínimo de 18.0779 y un máximo de 18.4064 pesos por dólar. Por su parte, el euro alcanzó un mínimo de 1.1355 y un máximo de 1.1411 dólares por euro. Por su parte, el euro-peso alcanzó un mínimo de 20.5982 y un máximo de 20.9257 pesos por euro en las cotizaciones interbancarias a la venta.

A las 3:15 p.m. las cotizaciones interbancarias a la venta se ubicaron en 18.1099 pesos por dólar, 1.4504 dólares por libra y en 1.1393 dólares por euro.

Gabriela Siller; PhD

Director de Análisis Económico-Financiero.

Banco BASE

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