Natural gas imports will account for 83% of total consumption in 2050, according to projections released by the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
Despite the increase in gas demand in the reference scenario (REF), the lack of upstream investments increases Mexico’s dependence on imported natural gas.
In 2050, 83% of the 5063 PJ of natural gas consumed in Mexico will be imported.
The REF reflects recent trends and current and planned policies to capture the evolving nature of the energy system.
The REF also identifies potential risks and issues that could arise if the energy sector develops along current trends.
On the other hand, in the Carbon Neutrality (CN) scenario, natural gas production in Mexico is 64% lower in 2050 than in the REF.
The CN illustrates the additional transformation needed to supply energy with the aspiration of reaching carbon neutrality in 2050.
Natural gas imports
In Mexico, according to the analysis, most of the national gas demand is met by imported gas (87 percent), coming mostly from the United States (90 percent).
Even with high import dependence, natural gas imports are 2 650 PJ (63 percent) lower in 2050 than in the REF.
Mexico’s oil trade dynamics consist of exporting its heavy crude to the international market, especially to the United States, while importing refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Mexico’s domestic refining capacity is insufficient to meet domestic demand.
However, with the decline in demand for refined products in the NC, an increasing share of the demand for refined products will be met by domestic refining production.
New projects in Mexico contribute to the expansion of natural gas flows from the United States to Mexico.
The latest segment of the Wahalajara system, which connects the Waha Hub to Guadalajara in central Mexico, is called the Villa de Reyes-Aguascalientes-Guadalajara (VAG) pipeline.
It is owned by Fermaca and began commercial operation in October 2020 and has a capacity of 900 million cubic feet per day.
The Samalayuca-Sasabe pipeline, owned by Carso Energy, a subsidiary of Grupo Carso, of 500 million cubic feet per day, began operations in January 2021 and connects natural gas from the Permian Basin to northwest Mexico.