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Logistical problems will remain until II-2022

Logistical problems will continue at least until the first half of 2022, projected the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

In 2022, a slowdown in growth rates can be expected because, unlike 2021, it will not start from a low base of comparison.

In addition, ECLAC added in a report, over the next year it is to be expected that supply shocks will persist, at least during the first half, which have already started to be seen for several months and which have been intensifying.

“Logistical problems, high transportation costs, rising input prices and difficulties in supply chains could persist until at least mid-2022,” he said.

Finally, a decrease in the monetary and fiscal stimulus programs that propped up the economies and contributed to reducing the negative impacts of the pandemic is expected for next year.

Logistical problems

The deficit in the services balance will increase in 2021 to -1.2% of GDP (from -1.0% in 2020).

According to ECLAC, this is mainly due to a deterioration in the account of transport services and other services whose imports (in part associated with imports of goods) increase in line with these.

In the case of transport services, the deterioration is also due to high international freight payments linked to the recovery in world demand for goods and logistics bottlenecks.

For its part, the travel services account shows some recovery so far this year, influenced by the recovery of inbound tourism in some economies in the region as restrictions on international travel have been easing.

Global trade tensions and disruptions in logistics chains have also helped drive up regional inflation.

In turn, the depreciations observed in some currencies in the region and the significant nominal imbalances that have been accumulating have contributed to the growth of inflation in the region.

Likewise, in some countries, increases in wages have boosted the greater dynamism of prices that has been evidenced since the second half of 2020.

 

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