The value of Latin American and Caribbean exports would rise 25% in 2021, to $ 1 trillion 206,072 million, ECLAC estimated on Tuesday.
The recovery in regional trade bears important similarities to recent developments in world trade, and its short-term prospects are subject to similar risks.
However, added ECLAC, there are specific factors that determine the evolution of the region’s trade and that stem from its pattern of export specialization.
Latin America and the Caribbean (selected countries): exports of pharmaceutical products to the regional market, average for 2018-2020
In the realm of trade in goods, the recovery of shipments in 2021 will be driven to a much greater extent by exogenous factors (the rise in the prices of raw materials) than by the ability to expand the volume exported.
From the perspective of ECLAC, although the prices of many basic products exported by the region are at high levels, there is no data to affirm that a new supercycle is being present.
Latin American exports
In the area of trade in services, regional dependence on tourism far exceeds the world average, so the uncertainty about the reopening of this sector negatively affects the outlook for several economies, especially the Caribbean.
ECLAC projects that the region as a whole will register a surplus of 24,000 million dollars in its trade in goods in 2021.
This is lower than that registered in 2020, which is mainly explained by the considerable recovery in imported volume.
Taken together, the members of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) would see their surplus increase from $ 55 billion in 2020 to $ 82 billion in 2021.
On the other hand, in the countries of Central America and the Caribbean there will be an increase in the trade deficit that they already registered in 2020.
The recovery of trade in goods in Latin America and the Caribbean is due to three main factors: i) the increase in the prices of several of its main export commodities; ii) the higher demand for imports in China, the United States and the European Union, and iii) the recovery of economic activity in the region itself.