Inegi reported this Wednesday that 15 of 21 manufacturing industries in Mexico presented monthly growth in March.
At the same time, manufacturing broke the inertia of two consecutive months of setbacks, although the 3.0% month-on-month advance (m/m) was not enough to prevent the result for the entire quarter from being slightly negative with -0.2% quarter versus trimester.
According to Monex, the advance in the manufacture of transportation equipment stands out, which rose 10.9% m / m and managed to offset the fall of 9.5% in February, although it is still 7.7% below the beginning of 2020.
Monex stated that the publication of the secondary sector data in March is good news with a better performance than anticipated in the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2021, so the bias for the review that will be released at the end of the month is on the rise.
In addition, after two months of strong disruptions, manufacturing shows signs of accelerating its pace, so it could have a greater impact in the next quarter, although it will be key that this occurs together with good results in construction so that the recovery is completed.
Globally, the positive momentum largely carried over into early 2021.
According to an analysis published by the European Commission, global PMIs are back in expansive territory for both services and manufacturing.
The recovery in manufacturing has been firmly underway for some time and is now particularly strong in advanced economies, while services PMIs have shown a notable improvement in recent months as optimism about openness has risen. service sector (although export order PMIs remain weak).
All of the above, together with the improvement in the outlook for virus control, especially through increased vaccination rates, has led to a significant increase in the growth forecast for 2021 and 2022 for both advanced economies and countries. emerging markets.
World GDP (excluding the EU) is expected to grow 5.9% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022.