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IATA: international passenger demand fell 75.6% in 2020

IATA reported that international passenger demand in 2020 was 75.6% lower than 2019 levels.

On the one hand, capacity (measured in kilometers of available seats or ASK) decreased 68.1 percent.

On the other hand, the IATA added that the load factor fell 19.2 percentage points to 62.8 percent.

In turn, domestic demand in 2020 fell 48.8% compared to 2019.

In another measurement of this organization, capacity contracted 35.7% and load factor fell 17 percentage points to 66.6 percent.

IATA

December 2020 total traffic was 69.7% below the same month in 2019, little improved from the 70.4% contraction in November.

Capacity was reduced 56.7% and load factor fell 24.6 percentage points to 57.5 percent.

Meanwhile, bookings for future trips made in January 2021 decreased 70% compared to the previous year, which put further pressure on the airlines’ cash positions and could affect the timing of the expected recovery.

Perspectives

IATA’s baseline forecast for 2021 is for a 50.4% improvement in 2020 demand that would bring the industry to 50.6% from 2019 levels.

While this opinion remains unchanged, there is a serious downside risk if more severe travel restrictions persist in response to the new variants.

If such a scenario materializes, the improvement in demand could be limited to just 13% above 2020 levels, leaving the industry at 38% of 2019 levels.

“Last year was a catastrophe. There’s no other way to describe it. The recovery during the northern hemisphere’s summer season stalled in the fall and the situation worsened dramatically during the year-end holiday season, as more severe travel restrictions were imposed on new outbreaks and new strains of Covid- 19 «, said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA Director General.

 

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