Global tourism will record a loss of 1.8 trillion dollars in 2021, according to a report issued by UNCTAD and UNWTO.
Taken together, the drop in international tourism due to the coronavirus pandemic could cause a loss of more than $ 4 trillion in global GDP during 2020 and 2021.
In general, the report assesses the economic impacts of three possible scenarios – all of them reflect the reduction of international visits – in the tourism sector in 2021.
The first, projected by the UNWTO, reflects a 75% reduction in international tourist visits – this being the most pessimistic forecast – based on the reduction in tourists observed in 2020.
Also, in this scenario, a fall in world tourism revenues of $ 948 billion causes a loss in real GDP of $ 2.4 trillion, that is, an increase of two and a half times.
This relationship varies greatly according to the countries, since in some there may be a double increase, while in others there may be a triple or quadruple.
In addition, according to the report, it is a multiplier that depends on the derived effects in the tourism sector, including unemployment of unskilled labor.
For example, international tourism contributes around 5% of GDP in Turkey and in 2020, the country suffered a 69% drop in international tourist visits.
The estimated loss is due to the direct impact of the pandemic on tourism and its domino effect in other sectors closely related to it.
The report states that international tourism and its highly linked sectors suffered an estimated loss of $ 2.4 trillion in 2020, following a sharp drop in international tourist visits.
A similar loss may occur this year, the report warns, noting that the recovery of the tourism sector will largely depend on the global application of COVID-19 vaccines.
«The world needs a global vaccination effort that protects workers, mitigates adverse social effects and makes strategic decisions regarding tourism, taking into account potential structural changes,» said UNCTAD Acting Secretary-General Isabelle Durant.