Forecasts for the GDP of 19 economies according to the OECD

This Wednesday forecasts for the GDP of 19 economies prepared by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were released.

In 2020, according to these forecasts, the economy that will have the greatest decline will be South Africa (-11.5%), followed by Argentina (-11.2%), Italy (-10.5%), India (-10.2%) and Mexico (-10.2%). hundred).

In contrast, China’s GDP will grow 1.8%, the only one with a positive performance among all the largest economies on the planet.

The OECD Provisional Economic Outlook notes that the Covid-19 pandemic continues to pose a threat to employment, business, health and well-being for millions of people, and therefore, in this environment of exceptional uncertainty, Building trust will be essential to ensure recovery and adaptation of economies.

After an unprecedented slump in the first half of the year, economic output recovered rapidly following the easing of containment measures and the initial reopening of businesses, but the recovery has slowed more recently.

As noted in the OECD report, new restrictions imposed in some countries to curb the rebound of the virus are likely to have slowed growth.

GDP

Uncertainty remains high and the strength of the recovery varies markedly across countries and business sectors.

The prospects for inclusive, resilient and sustainable economic growth will depend on several factors, such as the likelihood of new virus outbreaks, the degree of compliance with sanitary measures and restrictions, consumer and business confidence, and the to the extent that public aid aimed at conserving jobs and supporting companies manages to boost demand.

The Interim Economic Outlook forecasts a 4½% drop in global GDP this year, before rebounding 5% in 2021.

Real GDP growth (% year on year)

The GDP forecasts are less negative than those of the OECD’s June Economic Outlook, mainly due to better-than-expected results for China and the United States in the first half of this year and a massive response from governments.

However, in many countries, production at the end of 2021 will still be below the levels of the end of 2019 and well below the pre-pandemic forecast.