Who will be the world’s largest trading partnership in 2050? The UK government asked and answered this question.
By 2050, the most important trade relationships will continue to be between countries that share economic activity through value chains.
Largest trading partnership
According to the UK government’s baseline projections, the United States‘ relationship with the crucial trio of China, Canada, and Mexico will be the largest global trade partnership.
This will be closely followed by China’s relationships with Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and key commodity suppliers such as Australia.
Economic pressures are pushing for greater integration of these relationships. However, many key partnerships are developing amid geopolitical fractures.
Tensions between the US and China set the tone. Differences between Washington and its North American partners also weigh heavily. Added to this is the conflict between China and Taiwan.
These clashes could shake the foundations of global trade. They could disrupt supply and slow global growth. At the same time, they open up opportunities to reallocate trade flows to new markets.
International trade
Global merchandise trade rebounded in the first half of 2025. The momentum came in part from a sudden surge in shipments to the United States.
According to an OECD report, the effect was clear before April. At the same time, US retailers recorded an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio.
In the second quarter, trade remained steady in advanced Asian economies. It also grew in emerging markets in Asia and Eastern Europe. However, import volumes fell sharply in the United States. At the same time, exports declined in Canada and Latin America.
Bilateral trade between China and the United States suffered a sharp decline in recent months.
The OECD reports that high-frequency indicators reflected mixed signals. Container port traffic moderated in the summer. The same was true for air freight and passenger traffic. In turn, business surveys on new export orders continue to show weakness.