USMCA rules of origin led to a reduction in Mexican vehicle exports in 2024, according to an analysis by the United States International Trade Commission (USITC).
However, the decrease was marginal compared to total Mexican exports of these products.
Rules of origin are the criteria necessary to determine the national origin of a product. Their importance is explained by the fact that the duties and restrictions applied to imports may vary according to the origin of the imported products.
USMCA Rules of Origin
The USITC model projected a notable change in automotive trade. According to their estimates, the USMCA rules of origin reduced light vehicle imports into the United States by about 38,000 vehicles during 2024. This represents a 1% drop.
The adjustment affected several models assembled in Canada and Mexico. Many manufacturers faced higher production costs as they substituted outside suppliers for partners within the USMCA . Others did not comply with the requirements of the agreement and had to pay non-preferential normal tariff rates (NTR), which made their exports more expensive and reduced their competitiveness.
In contrast, the model estimates a growth in vehicle purchases outside the bloc. Imports from countries that are not members of the USMCA increased by 14,000 units, equivalent to an increase of 0.4%.
These units faced no new tariff restrictions. In addition, their manufacturers were not required to modify their supply chain to comply with rules of origin.
The estimated impact on light vehicle imports to the United States due to the USMCA rules of origin in 2024, in units, is shown below:
- From Mexico: -30,234.
- From Canada: -7,356.
- From non-USMCA countries: 14,314.
Therefore, the price of light vehicles imported from outside the USMCA increased less than the price of vehicles produced in the USMCA , making non-USMCA vehicles slightly more competitive in price.
Methodology
The economic simulation model analyzes the automotive sector in detail. It includes 341 individual light vehicle models. All are produced by 21 manufacturers with operations in North America. And all are destined for the North American market.
As marcas consideradas são: Audi, BMW, Daimler, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar Land Rover, Kia, Lucid, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Porsche, Rivian, Stellantis, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen e Volvo.
A análise estima o impacto de dois fatores principais. Por um lado, o efeito das barreiras automotivas aplicadas quando não se cumprem as regras de origem do USMCA. Por outro, as mudanças nos custos associadas à modificação do abastecimento de peças e materiais. Em especial, os relacionados com o aço e o alumínio, necessários para cumprir essas regras.