The Mexican economy in 2025 closed without clear momentum, according to the IMEF‘s interpretation of its leading indicators.
In December 2025, both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indicators showed signs of weakness and loss of traction.
Mexican economy in 2025
The manufacturing sector continued to contract. Although it showed a marginal improvement, this was not enough to reverse the cycle. As a result, there is still a lack of solid foundations for a sustained recovery.
Overall, the data describe an economy that closes the year without clear momentum. In addition, structural fragility remains present in both industry and services.
According to the IMEF Manufacturing Indicator for December 2025, the overall index rose slightly from 45.8 to 46.2 points, an increase of 0.4 points compared to November.
However, the indicator accumulated 21 consecutive months in contraction territory. This confirms a prolonged weakening of the industrial sector. At the same time, the trend-cycle series rose by just 0.1 points to 46.3 points. Thus, the slowdown was less intense, although there were no clear signs of a change in cycle.
Please note: The IMEF Indicator ranges from 0 to 100 points, with 50 points representing the threshold between expansion (above 50) and contraction (below 50) in economic activity.
On the other hand, the subindex adjusted for company size fell 0.7 points. It stood at 46.5 units. This movement also deepened the heterogeneity between the different productive segments.
Services
The IMEF Non-Manufacturing Indicator for December 2025 showed a decline. The overall index fell from 50.3 to 49.5 points. With this, it left the expansion zone and returned to contractionary territory.
At the same time, the trend-cycle series remained unchanged at 50.0 points. It stood right on the threshold. This marked a pause in the recovery observed in previous months.
For its part, the measurement adjusted by company size also fell slightly. It fell 0.3 points. Even so, it remained in expansion, with 50.9 units.