Tariffs in the United States put pressure for greater compliance with the USMCA, highlighted the Mexican Business Council for Foreign Trade, Investment and Technology (Comce).
In 2024, Mexico exported products for 505.9 billion dollars to the United States, of which only 49% were made under the benefits of the USMCA, according to figures from Banco Base.
This means that 51% of Mexican exports were left out of the treaty because many exports entered under the Most Favored Nation (MFN) clause.
Compliance with the USMCA
But in 2025, faced with the new tariff environment, a growing number of Mexican exporters may be reconsidering their decision not to use the USMCA, as the tariff benefits could outweigh the administrative costs associated with complying with the rules of origin.
Although it is not yet possible to estimate how many companies will opt to use the treaty, the Comce anticipates a more intensive use of the treaty in the coming months.
In particular, for the automotive sector, it is expected that the U.S. content of Mexican exports will be systematically documented, which would allow for significant tariff reductions to be applied.
Under this assumption, according to BBVA Research figures, if the average U.S. content of 18.3% in automotive exports is recognized, the overall weighted tariff could be reduced to 13.1%. If the historical record of exports channeled through the USMCA (64.2%) is also reached, this tariff would decrease even further.
In an optimistic scenario where the U.S. administration reduces the tariff linked to immigration and fentanyl issues from 25% to 12%, the weighted tariff for Mexico would fall to 8.4%, according to Comce projections.
This would position the country among those with less exposure to U.S. trade protectionism at a global level.
Bilateral trade
Mexico faces a 25% tariff on exports that do not comply with the USMCA, a 25% tariff on its auto exports (with certain discounts) and a 25% tariff on its steel and aluminum shipments (including derivatives of both metals).
On May 27, 2025, the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, stated that about 86% of Mexico’s trade with the United States does not face tariffs, a percentage that dropped from 100% at the beginning of 2025, in violation of the USMCA.