Simon J. Evenett, professor of Geopolitics and Strategy at IMD, highlighted the opportunities for profitability if companies invest in geopolitical assets.
In an article published by IMD, Evenett argued that in turbulent times, companies can justify their investments in geopolitical assets by going beyond risk mitigation and using foresight to gain competitive advantage and create value.
Investments in geopolitical assets
From his perspective, corporate leadership faces constant demands: digital transformation, sustainability transitions, talent wars, activist investors.
“Now, geopolitics is becoming a crowded agenda. This raises a difficult question: with senior executives stretched to their limits, how can geopolitical teams demonstrate enough strategic value to justify their budgets?” he said.
Geopolitical disruption became an opportunity for some companies. A logistics operator captured business when competitors left volatile markets. In doing so, it turned sanctions and tariffs into a commercial advantage and gained new customers.
European Union sanctions on Belarusian potash in 2021 and tariffs on Belarusian and Russian fertilizers in 2025 disrupted supply chains. However, Evenett said they also opened up space for Western European producers who anticipated the change.
Uncertainty
According to executives interviewed, customer confidence was built by demonstrating operational capability in hostile environments. It was not the largest teams that won, but those that turned geopolitical foresight into a favorable market position.
The analysis is based on a report by the World Economic Forum, IMD, and Boston Consulting Group. The study, based on more than 55 interviews, examines how companies institutionalize geopolitics to perceive, plan, and act in uncertainty.
Fewer than 60 companies have dedicated geopolitical functions. Most respond on an ad hoc basis. The cost is financial: one automaker estimated losses of $4 billion from tariffs, with only 35% mitigable.
Geopolitics today requires direct control by leadership. Evenett recommended that executives should take it on as a strategic function. At the same time, geopolitical teams face a clear test: demonstrating measurable value creation and turning foresight into concrete results.
Anticipated changes
The starting point depends on the level of maturity. When the practice is ad hoc, it is advisable to establish quantification methodologies aligned with leadership. Thus, geopolitics ceases to be a reaction and becomes an input for economic decisions.
If the approach is defensive, the next step is to develop scenarios. The goal is not only to identify risks, but also to detect opportunities. In this way, geopolitical information broadens the commercial and strategic horizon.
In organizations with strategic integration, the advantage comes from anticipating regulatory or market changes. Identifying these shifts before competitors allows for faster repositioning and value capture.