Industrial activity in the United States will boost Mexican manufacturing in 2026, according to the Ministry of Finance.
Its projection: in the area of foreign trade, Mexican manufacturing will benefit from a rebound in U.S. industrial activity, which remained depressed in 2024, particularly in sectors with high trade volume such as transportation equipment, electrical appliances and specialized machinery.
Industrial activity in the United States
This trend will also be helped by a more competitive exchange rate, which will increase the contribution of the external sector to the Mexican economy’s growth.
In 2025, the Ministry of Finance projects a better performance of industry in the United States. This will be due to more favorable financial conditions and a public policy focused on strengthening manufacturing.
Tax incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act will continue to drive investment. In particular, the transportation, electronics and clean energy industries are expected to maintain their growth, albeit at a more moderate pace than in previous years.
In addition, states with strong trade links to Mexico -such as Texas, Michigan and California- will maintain positive economic dynamics. Texas, in particular, has positioned itself as a pole of innovation in manufacturing and technology. There, new investments are flowing into sectors such as semiconductors, electronics and artificial intelligence.
This development will generate new value chains, integrating Mexican suppliers. At the same time, Mexico will continue to diversify its exports. Georgia, Tennessee, Illinois and Alabama are gaining relevance as new destinations, in sectors such as medical equipment, food and beverages, and advanced manufacturing.
This reinforces trade integration with the United States and expands Mexico’s presence in strategic industries.
Peso vs. dollar
The Ministry of Finance projects an exchange rate of 20.0 pesos per dollar by the end of 2025. This would imply a depreciation of 1.5 pesos, equivalent to a variation of 8.0% compared to the estimate in the 2025 Economic Package.
The adjustment responds to the uncertainty surrounding possible changes in U.S. trade and fiscal policies. Global financial conditions also play a role.
However, for 2026, less exchange rate volatility is anticipated. This scenario would favor a gradual appreciation of the peso, similar to that observed after previous episodes of trade tension with the United States.