A report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) described trends in global fertilizer markets.
Global fertilizer trade supports food security. It ensures agricultural productivity and food supply. Historically, it has grown with the expansion of agriculture and globalization. However, it faces fluctuations due to energy prices, geopolitical tensions, and environmental regulations.
Global fertilizer markets
The main fertilizer producers include Nutrien (Canada), Yara International (Norway), The Mosaic Company (United States), Uralkali (Russia), and CF Industries (United States).
The global fertilizer market in 2024-2025 shows complex interactions. Production increased, but prices and trade policy created volatility. Demand varies by region and crop type.
In 2024, global production grew: phosphates rose by 5%, potash by 4% and nitrogen (urea) by 3%. However, input costs skyrocketed in 2025. Between January and May, the price of natural gas rose by 54% year-on-year. This led to temporary cuts in urea production in Egypt and Iran, pushing nitrogen prices up 14%.
Phosphates rose 12%, while potash remained stable. In 2024, global fertilizer trade grew 4% in volume, exceeding 170 million tons, although its value fell 10% due to lower average prices.
In early 2025, trade volume declined due to weather disruptions and political uncertainty. Export restrictions and policy changes by major producers continue to impact pricing.
Uncertainty
The affordability and use of fertilizers vary between countries and crops. In May 2025, the fertilizer-to-crop price ratio improved in the European Union and Brazil, but deteriorated in China due to a local increase in urea.
From June to October 2025, nitrogen supply is expected to remain stable. Phosphate markets will remain tight as demand increases in India and Ethiopia. Potash prices could consolidate, with seasonal demand from Asia and below-average stocks in China.
Political uncertainty, potential energy price increases due to the conflict in the Middle East, and logistical disruptions will affect fertilizer affordability and global supply stability.