U.S. President Donald Trump will seek to restrict the entry of Chinese products into North America. This is the forecast of Adrián González, president of Global Alliance, a company specializing in foreign trade services.
In 2025, China exported goods to North America with a customs value of $558.148 billion.
Chinese Products in North America
“Knowing Trump, I don’t think he’s a patient man. The midterm elections in November are fast approaching, and the political climate is already complicated for him due to the war in Iran and issues like the cost of living in the United States. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if he seeks a quick victory and uses the USMCA as a platform to boast about,” said González.
González noted that the Trump administration will likely seek to make minimal changes to rules of origin and impose certain restrictions on trade in Chinese products.
China exported $420.988 billion worth of goods to the U.S. market in 2025, a 20 percent year-over-year decline.
The Trump administration has negotiated the famous “deals.” It has been outside any concept of an international treaty.
Juan Antonio Dorantes, managing partner of the consulting firm Dorantes Advisors, noted that these documents typically include obligations for the other country. This is done in exchange for lower tariffs. “Trump could make changes to the USMCA’s rules of origin through these deals, side agreements, or side letters to the treaty, without altering the text, because he cannot do so without TPA,” he said by way of example.
Additionally, China exported goods to Mexico worth $89.19 billion (-1%, year-over-year). It exported $49.97 billion to Canada (+3%, year-over-year), according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs.
Economic Outlook
The international environment continues to present significant challenges. According to the SHCP, sources of volatility associated with geopolitical conflicts, disruptions in strategic global trade routes, and changes in U.S. trade policy persist. This occurs in a context marked by the review process of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).
However, the SHCP added, Mexico enters this phase with strengths that allow it to face the external environment with greater responsiveness. The Mexican economy has solid fundamentals, low and sustainable public debt, a resilient financial system, historically high levels of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and a strategic position within North American value chains.