China managed to more than neutralize the impact of US tariffs, at least in the first seven months of 2025, according to a report by ECLAC.
On the one hand, China’s total imports fell by 3.5% in the first seven months of 2025. The adjustment was mainly due to the fall in international commodity prices. These included oil, iron ore, and soybeans.
In addition, the greater uncertainty in trade policy amplified the pressure. In this context, the 11.9% contraction in purchases from the United States stood out.
Impact of US tariffs
China managed to more than offset the decline in its exports to the US market. It did so through double-digit increases in shipments to the European Union, India, and ASEAN, among other destinations.
In this context, ASEAN consolidated its commercial weight. This is the Southeast Asian organization aimed at promoting the cultural, economic, and political development of the region. It is made up of ten countries: Burma, Brunei, Cambodia, the Philippines, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.
In addition, ASEAN foreign trade showed remarkable dynamism in the first half of 2025. Total exports grew 17.4% year-on-year. Imports, meanwhile, rose 15.3%.
According to ECLAC data on trade flows from 60 economies, global trade in goods remained buoyant during the same period. The value of imports grew by 6% compared to the first half of 2024.
By sector, imports of medicines, machinery, and equipment stood out. Metals and their derivatives also performed well, all with double-digit growth.
In contrast, only two items recorded declines. Oil and mining fell by 9%. The chemical and petrochemical industry declined by 4%.
Global trade
In short, the strong momentum of global trade in goods in the first seven months of 2025 was largely due to temporary factors. Among these, the accumulation of inventories by companies stood out. The objective was to mitigate the impact of tariff increases in the United States.
Furthermore, as anticipated in section I.D, most of these tariff increases did not materialize until August. Therefore, the momentum observed was temporary.
Under this scenario, a marked slowdown in global trade in goods is expected for the rest of the year. Furthermore, the slowdown would become more pronounced in 2026. Unlike in 2025, the effect of higher tariffs would be felt from January onwards and without transitional support measures.
At the same time, the evolution of bilateral trade flows between January and July 2025 points to a profound reconfiguration of global value chains. This process is mainly a response to the trade decoupling between the United States and China.
In this context, the economies of East Asia, Southeast Asia, and India took on a central role. They did so both as large consumer markets and as key platforms for manufacturing exports.