The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected that apple consumption in Mexico for the 2025/2026 marketing year will be approximately 1.11 million tons, a modest increase of 3% year-on-year.
Marketing years begin in August of each year.
On Wednesday, the Mexican government published a resolution in the Official Gazette of the Federation (DOF) on an anti-dumping investigation against imports of apples originating in the United States.
Apple consumption in Mexico
According to the USDA, the increase in consumption will be driven by higher domestic production and imports, with increases of 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively.
Overall, the USDA expects higher supply levels and steady consumer demand to fuel moderate growth in apple consumption in Mexico.
Until early December 2025, U.S. apples are sold in Mexico at a significantly higher price. In retail stores, they cost 42 pesos more per kilo than apples from Chihuahua. In this context, persistent food inflation continues to put pressure on household spending. As a result, for many households, apples are no longer an essential product in the consumer basket.
This scenario is considered in the USDA’s consumption forecast. The agency takes into account that the retail price of apples remains high. As a result, consumption growth remains limited. This is despite the fact that the fruit is part of the Mexican government’s official “basic basket” of goods.
The trend is in line with overall price behavior. From January to September 2025, cumulative inflation in Mexico was 2.7%. This is reflected in the National Consumer Price Index (INPC), compiled by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi).
Golden Delicious from Mexico
Although the INPC reports a 4.9% drop in average fruit and vegetable prices, overall inflationary pressure persists. As a result, households’ purchasing power for food continues to weaken.
In this environment, price and palatability continue to set the tone for domestic apple consumption. During 2025, the Golden Delicious variety, which accounts for around 56% of total production, and Red Delicious, with around 30%, maintain their market leadership. In addition, their retail prices per kilo are at similar levels to those of 2024. At the same time, they are between 40% and 48% lower than those of apples imported from the United States.
Even so, the USDA anticipates an increase in imports. For the 2025/2026 marketing year, the agency projects foreign purchases of 305,000 metric tons, a 3.5% increase over the previous cycle.
However, the growth in local production, together with high retail prices and inflation, will moderate the expansion of demand for imported apples. In this context, the US supply, available throughout the year but at a higher cost, will continue to complement domestic production.