The 2026 USMCA review will define the future of nearshoring in Mexico and the stability of regional foreign trade. The mechanism provided for in the treaty contemplates three formal routes that directly affect legal certainty, foreign direct investment, and supply chains in North America.
Since its entry into force in July 2020, the Agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada has established a six-year review clause. In 2026, the partners may automatically extend its validity for an additional 16 years, activate annual reviews, or initiate the termination process with six months’ notice.
Automatic extension: certainty and acceleration of nearshoring
If there is complete consensus, the agreement would be extended until 2042. This decision would provide long-term regulatory predictability. It would also strengthen regional competitiveness vis-à-vis Asia and consolidate productive relocation projects in strategic sectors such as automotive, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing.
For exporting companies, the extension would mean stability in rules of origin, preferential tariffs, and consolidated access to the U.S. market. As a result, capital-intensive investment planning and supply chain integration would be strengthened under the umbrella of regional managed trade.
Annual reviews: moderate uncertainty and regulatory pressure
If there is no full consensus, the treaty would remain in force but would enter into an annual review process. This scenario would maintain preferential access, albeit with greater regulatory volatility. The possibility of adjustments to trade policy and sectoral rules could delay foreign direct investment decisions.
In the absence of a subsequent agreement, the USMCA would expire in 2036. This horizon introduces a strategic risk for long-term projects. Companies would need to adjust risk matrices, contracts, and sourcing strategies in light of potential changes in tariffs and trade disciplines.
Termination of the agreement: return to WTO tariffs
The least likely scenario envisages withdrawal from the agreement. In that case, regional trade would return to tariffs under World Trade Organization rules. The impact would include higher logistics costs, loss of preferences, and less productive integration.
Various analyses estimate that a return to multilateral schemes would increase trade friction. It would also affect Mexican manufacturing competitiveness and its position in global chains. Uncertainty could also slow down the attraction of export-oriented productive investment.
Trade policy in North America and structural tensions
U.S. trade policy combines industrial defense, strategic subsidies, and selective use of tariffs. It also prioritizes supply chain resilience and reducing the goods trade deficit. This environment shapes trilateral negotiations and redefines incentives for nearshoring.
Technological tensions with China in sectors such as electric vehicles and semiconductors are intensifying the relocation of production to North America. In this context, Mexico is emerging as a key manufacturing platform, although it is dependent on regulatory stability and compliance with trade commitments.
Foreign direct investment and export performance
Mexico attracted $40.906 billion in foreign direct investment during the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 14.5%, according to the Ministry of Economy. Of particular note is the 218.6% increase in new investments, an indicator sensitive to the regulatory environment.
Mexican exports reached US$664.0662 billion in 2025, an annual increase of 7.6%, according to Inegi. This dynamism exceeded the 6% global expansion estimated by UNCTAD, reinforcing the country’s strategic relevance.