Corn consumption in Mexico will register a 0.5% year-over-year growth in the marketing year ending September 2023, to 44 million 300,000 tons, projected the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
At the same time, while projected corn imports to Mexico will drop 4.4% to 17.3 million tons, exports will fall 24% to 200,000 tons.
Expected production is 27.4 million tons, an increase of 3.5%, at an annual rate.
From the USDA’s perspective, the lower corn production reflects lower yields, high input costs and dry weather patterns in the Gulf Coast corn growing regions.
Mexico’s corn production for the 2021/2022 season (October 2021-September 2022) is pegged at 26.5 million tons based on updated figures from the Ministry of Agriculture (SADER).
The 2021/22 season winter corn cycle harvest ended in August 2022. According to USDA, farmers in major winter corn producing states recorded minimal losses.
Despite the drought and damaging frosts in Tamaulipas, farmers reported good grain quality.
The winter corn cycle accounts for 30% of Mexico’s total corn production.
While states such as Sinaloa and Sonora reported yields of 12.17 and 11.19 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha), respectively, the average yield of the winter corn crop was reported at 6.61 mt/ha.
For the 2022/23 summer crop cycle, harvest in Tamaulipas is underway and overall grain quality appears good.
Due to an aflatoxin outbreak, a percentage of the white corn originally intended for human consumption will be used for livestock feed.
Harvest in Durango begins in December and is expected to end in January 2023. In Chihuahua, which produces nearly 7% of Mexico’s summer corn, damage caused by flooding in late September led to lower production levels.
In the Bajío region, which encompasses the states of Jalisco, Guanajuato and Michoacán, the harvest is expected to last until February 2023.
USDA estimates total domestic consumption for the 2022/23 marketing year at 44.3 million tons, due to a slightly less than 1% increase in domestic feed consumption, with year-over-year feed consumption static.