The International Grains Council (IGC) projected that China could surpass the European Union in wheat production.
Likewise, the IGC expects world wheat results to reach consecutive all-time highs over the next five seasons.
Given the strong net increases in production registered in Argentina, Ukraine and the European Union, world production in 2025/2026 is expected to amount to 822 million tons, 57 million more than in 2020/2021, according to their estimates.
Assuming state support levels for the food grain sector are maintained, the IGC expects China’s wheat acreage to remain high over the next five years, which, combined with steady increases in productivity, could cause that country to overtake the European Union as the world’s largest producer towards the end of the forecast period.
Stocks held by major exporters have only increased slightly, as modest recoveries from below-normal levels in the European Union and the Russian Federation have been partly offset by slight declines elsewhere, such as the United States.
If average yield growth matches recent trends, and assuming normal weather conditions, the IGC projects world cereal production (wheat and coarse grains) to hit successive records over the next five years to 2025/2026.
These circumstances will be sufficient to maintain the anticipated pace of demand growth, but will allow little rebuilding of stocks, which will reduce the ratio of total cereal stocks to their utilization somewhat.
At the same time, international grain trade is expected to grow at an average rate of 2% per year, driven by increased shipments of wheat and corn.
Although annual growth is expected to be slower than in recent years, increased feed requirements will continue to drive growth in maize shipments, with China being a regular buyer of sizeable volumes.
Much of the growth in wheat trade is attributed to expanding imports of milling wheat.