A program to support pig production in China has a goal of adding 22 million slaughtered pigs per year, noted China Xiangtai Food Co.
Due to strong restocking efforts in 2020 and lower losses from African swine fever, the decline in herd inventory is projected to reverse, and inventories by the end of 2020 are forecast to have grown 9 percent.
Also, according to that same company, it is projected that the total of slaughtered pigs and the production of pork in 2020 would have decreased even more, by 24% and 20%, respectively, compared to the previous year.
Since 2019, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) has implemented a three-year mission plan to stabilize pig production and supply in that country.
By the end of 2019, MARA had implemented a program called Large Agricultural Enterprises Lead 10,000 Households in Pig Farming to alleviate poverty in 16 less developed cities in provinces such as Hubei and Sichuan.
With an investment of 7.1 billion dollars (RMB 50 billion) by 15 large agricultural companies, the program is expected to add 22 million pigs slaughtered per year.
The key drivers of the PRC pork industry can be analyzed in terms of supply and demand.
On the one hand, the growing demand for fresh pork and packaged pork products is due to rising disposable income and living standards, continued urbanization, expanding middle class, the important role of animal protein in food consumption, the importance of pork as a source of animal protein and the growing demand for safe and high-quality products.
As a result of changes in consumer behavior and growing demand, producers are experiencing accelerated industrial concentration and a trend towards vertical integration.
On the other hand, the rapid growth of the swine industry in the People’s Republic of China has been driven in large part by strong economic growth, continued urbanization and rising disposable income.
China is the world’s largest pork production and consumption market, comprising 49.25 and 50.2% of the world production and consumption markets respectively in 2015.
Pork is deeply ingrained in Chinese culture and diet, accounting for 61.9% of China’s meat consumption in 2015.
Although the volume of pork production in the People’s Republic of China has historically grown steadily, there has been a constant gap between supply and demand for pork.
According to China Xiangtai Food Co., pork consumption is expected to grow at a comparatively faster compound annual growth rate of 3.08% compared to pork production at a rate of 3.01% from 2012 to 2018, leading to a growing supply shortage.
Therefore, the volume of pork imports from the People’s Republic of China is expected to continue to increase.
Since 2018, China has witnessed a severe African swine fever epidemic.
China produced 24.7 million tons of pork in the first six months of 2019, 5.5% less than the previous year, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.