Banxico measures the impact of relocation to Mexico
The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) estimated the possible magnitude of the impact of company relocations based on information from the Monthly Survey of Regional Economic Activity (EMAER).
Uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the impact that the reconfiguration of global value chains will have on domestic production is high.
In order to have some information, even if it was approximate, the companies surveyed were asked about the size, in ranges of magnitude, of the impact they have observed on their production and investment, or that they have planned for these variables in the following year.
In the last 12 months, companies observed changes of greater magnitude in the northern region, and this has manifested itself in an increase in production with previously installed capacity rather than in greater investment in the expansion of such capacity or the acquisition of new plants or facilities.
Regarding the changes expected for the next 12 months in response to the observed increase in foreign investment or the demand for the reconfiguration of production chains, the region with the largest planned increases in production and investment in the manufacturing sector is the north-central region.
Banxico
For illustrative purposes and to gauge the magnitude of the effect on aggregate production and investment, Banxico estimates the implicit impact on these variables for some categories.
This calculation is an approximation, since the responses in ranges do not allow for a direct point estimate, in addition to possibly reflecting an opinion on the part of the companies and not a precise calculation.
The estimated effect on the production of companies with more than 100 workers in the economy as a whole has been greater in production with previously installed capacity, with an estimated increase of 2.2 percent, than in investment in new plants to increase capacity, for which an increase of 1.4 percent is estimated.
In addition, among manufacturing companies, the aggregate impact is greater for exporters than for non-exporters and for the sector integrated in global chains compared to the rest.
Likewise, the expected changes in investment in the manufacturing sector are greater than those that have already been observed.
Regarding the regional dimension, the effects already observed in the northern region have been proportionally greater, followed by those observed in the center, whose magnitude is very similar to that of the north, and then by the center-north and finally the south.
The largest planned changes in production for the next twelve months are expected in the north-central region, although close to those in the north and center. Those planned in investment are higher in the northern region, estimated at about double those in the south.
