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Banorte: pros and cons in Mexican exports and imports

Banorte‘s area of ​​analysis highlighted this Thursday that the main impact on Mexico’s foreign trade could be concentrated in imports, mainly consumer goods -both oil and non-oil- in the face of generally downward mobility levels (reducing demand for gasoline) and shopping centers and other non-essential stores closed.

In addition, other idiosyncratic risks prevail, according to Banorte. Among them, note that new railroad blockades were implemented in Michoacán, which could again affect the traffic of goods in the port of Lázaro Cárdenas.

For its part, the weakness in domestic demand, in the absence of a significant stimulus at the local level, will probably extend in the coming months.

On the contrary, Banorte added, a positive factor is the continuity of the public-private infrastructure plan, which – according to the original proposal – should have had 24 projects in operation in January (out of a total of 68), possibly supporting imports of capital goods, which have been progressing moderately in sequential terms.

Banorte

On external factors, the PMIs in the United States continued to increase in January.

The Bank highlighted the manufacturing indicator at 59.1 points, its highest level since mid-2014. According to Markit, «new orders» and «production» expanded strongly despite highlighting the lack of raw materials, which could suggest weakness in our country.

Meanwhile, vaccine rollout continues at a favorable pace and optimism about further fiscal stimulus is high, even despite facing some challenges in the Senate.

In addition, recent comments from various officials in the United States suggest that the pressure on China will continue, which could be beneficial for Mexico, although probably with greater impact only in the medium term. Considering this, Banorte judges that uncertainty about performance in the short term has increased, with a good possibility of further weakness going forward.

However, the bank is more positive in the face of a medium-term outlook in which vaccination processes continue throughout the world, tensions with the United States diminish and important economic stimuli are implemented in that country that would have a favorable impact on Mexico.

Additionally, as vaccination also advances in Mexico, a more significant recovery in domestic demand could be seen.

 

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