World trade will fall between 10 and 16% in 2020: EC

World trade will drop 10-16% in 2020, an analysis by the European Commission projected.

In particular, for the bloc (27 nations), the expected reduction is expected to be between 9 and 15% for non-EU27 exports and between 11 and 14% for non-EU imports (combined goods and services).

In absolute terms, using the latest available statistics, this equates to a reduction in extra-EU27 exports of between 282,000 and 470,000 million euros and a decrease in extra-EU27 imports of between 313,000 and 398,000 million euros (also, goods and services combined ).

Exports from the primary (non-energy) sectors and trade in services are less affected than the manufacturing sectors, although most of which see export contractions of 15 percent.

In particular, exports of transport equipment and electrical machinery turn out to be the most damaged sectors.

World trade

The European Commission updated the April estimates of the commercial effects generated by the reduction of economic activity after the Covid-19 outbreak.

The increasing spread of the virus has forced governments around the world to implement blocking measures, which temporarily close businesses and restrict travel and the movement of people.

These measures will lead to sharp contractions in production levels, household spending, investment and international trade.

Since the beginning of the year, various institutions have published estimates on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global growth, including projections on world trade for 2020.

Comparative

In early April, the secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) also simulated the possible economic effects of the pandemic on international trade, using a different methodological approach.

The WTO predicted that world merchandise trade could fall between 13 and 32% in 2020, depending on assumptions about the duration and severity of the Covid-19 crisis.

Exports from the EU-27 were estimated to decrease between 12 and 33%, while imports would fall between 10 and 25%.

These results were published sometime before the IMF, OECD and the European Commission itself released their latest updates to GDP forecasts for 2020.