Critical mineral processing is shaping up to be one of the central issues in the review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement scheduled for July 2026.
The Donald Trump administration seeks to strengthen regional extraction, processing, and manufacturing to reduce external dependencies and reinforce strategic supply chains in North America.
In December 2025, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer presented to Congress the interest in creating a regional Critical Minerals Market. The goal is to encourage mining, recycling, reuse, and advanced manufacturing under a coordinated trade policy and productive integration scheme.
Regional integration and rules of origin for strategic minerals
The review of the USMCA opens the door to adjustments in rules of origin, particularly in the automotive sector. The BlueGreen Alliance requested strengthening provisions that encourage the use of North American mineral inputs in vehicles and batteries.
This approach responds to the need to reduce vulnerabilities. In 2019, more than 60% of lithium, cobalt, and graphite was mined in Australia, Congo, and China, respectively. Likewise, more than 60% of global lithium and cobalt processing was concentrated in China, generating geopolitical and commercial risks.
Structural risks in mining and metallurgy
The processing of critical minerals faces technical, environmental, and regulatory constraints. Factors such as export quotas, price volatility, capital-intensive requirements, and environmental standards influence the viability of projects.
In addition, the geographical concentration of reserves restricts diversification. China has dominated rare earth production since the mid-1990s, which has conditioned the economic security of multiple industries, from semiconductors to clean energy.
Implications for Mexico in foreign trade and nearshoring
For Mexico, the processing of critical minerals represents an opportunity linked to nearshoring and attracting foreign direct investment in advanced manufacturing, electromobility, and energy. However, the review of the USMCA will include discussions on labor compliance, energy policy, and the use of third-party content in regional chains, among other issues.
Bilateral talks began in January 2026 between Greer and Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard. The United States anticipates tough negotiations to resolve bilateral and trilateral issues, including implicit tariffs, regulatory standards, and strengthening rules of origin.
Economic security and global competition for resources
In its 2025 National Security Strategy, the White House identified Africa as a priority region for investment in critical energy and minerals. This move seeks to secure supplies in the face of strategic competition with China and diversify sources of supply.
In this context, the processing of critical minerals is not only an industrial issue, but also a component of trade policy and geoeconomics. The decisions taken in the 2026 review of the USMCA could redefine foreign trade flows and the configuration of supply chains in North America.