Who has been the winners and losers in phone exports to the United States with the trade war?
The starting point for answering this question is that the US market imported these products with a customs value of $65.085 billion in the first half of 2025. This represents a 32.8% increase over the same period in 2024.
A key part of the explanation for this increase is that many importers made advance purchases. They did so to avoid cost overruns resulting from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
In the first half of 2025, external sales of phones from Vietnam and India increased at triple-digit rates, 108.7% and 153.9%, respectively, while those from China—the leading supplier—fell 26.2% at annual rates.
Phone exports to the United States
Apple dominates the mobile phone market in the United States. It is followed by Samsung, Motorola, and Google Pixel. These brands stand out for their constant innovation, brand presence, and distribution capacity.
At the same time, technological innovations continue apace. Notable developments include the use of artificial intelligence, the expansion of 5G networks, and foldable screens. High-resolution cameras, biometric security, and augmented reality are also advancing. In addition, new models feature faster processors and longer-lasting batteries.
These are the exports of phones to the United States, by major external suppliers from January to June 2025, in millions of dollars and their year-on-year growth, according to data from the Department of Commerce:
- China: 14,880 (-26.2 percent).
- Vietnam: 12,606 (+108.7 percent).
- India: 12,547 (+153.9 percent).
- Thailand: 7,317 (+96.4 percent).
- Mexico: 5,837 (+25.0 percent).
- Taiwan: 3,793 (+12.5 percent).
- Malaysia: 3,372 (+67.6 percent).
- Israel: 543 (-0.2 percent).
- Canada: 490 (+1.4 percent).
- Philippines: 418 (+27.7 percent).
China’s decline
A decade ago, in 2014, exports of phones to the United States from China totaled $59.215 billion. In contrast, exports from India were only $80 million.
At the same time, shipments from Vietnam totaled $1.822 billion, and shipments from Mexico totaled $9.321 billion.
The highest historical value reached by China was $71.896 billion in 2017.
This is the trend in Chinese phone exports to the US market, in millions of dollars:
- 2019: 58,326.
- 2020: 52,263.
- 2021: 60,317.
- 2022: 63,120.
- 2023: 54,509.
- 2024: 50,779.
- January-June 2024: 20,152.
- January-June 2025: 14,880.