The diesel prices in Mexico will foreseeably increase in 2025 due to the reduction in refinery production, projected GMXT.
In the period from January 1 to March 31, 2025, the price of diesel increased 4.3% compared to the same period in 2024.
From GMXT’s perspective, the increase in certain macroeconomic variables, as well as the fact that 60% of gasoline is imported and the decrease in fuel supply due to the reduction of refinery production in the country, suggest that the price of diesel will continue to grow in the short term.
Today, almost 99% of the world’s freight trains run on diesel. Some use it directly, with diesel engines. Others combine it with electric systems in hybrid configurations. So diesel remains key to global rail transport.
Diesel prices
Diesel is the main input for Ferromex and Ferrosur. For this reason, any increase in its price directly impacts operating costs. As a result, GMXT customers face an additional fuel surcharge.
In addition, fuel costs represent an important part of the company’s budget. In 2023, for example, diesel accounted for 32% of its operating costs. This percentage shows the heavy dependence on this input.
At the end of 2023, GMXT had 16 diesel suppliers. Of that total, 19.5% of the fuel was imported. This shows additional exposure to international price volatility.
Operating costs
During the last three years, the impact of diesel was constant. It accounted for 32% of operating costs in 2023, 33% in 2022 and 31% in 2021.
In international trade, the rail system plays a strategic role in Mexico. It is mainly used to import agricultural products, especially corn, and containerized cargo. At the same time, it allows the export of automobiles and beer, which reinforces its value in the logistics chain.
On the other hand, foreign investment in the Mexican rail sector remains limited. Currently, it can only reach up to 49% in general communication routes. However, it is possible to exceed that limit with authorization from the National Foreign Investment Commission (CNIE). In fact, the CNIE has allowed foreign participation above 49% only in construction projects.