Arca Continental foresees a revision of the USMCA on renewable energies as a result of Mexico‘s energy policies.
In his presidential term (2018-2024), Andrés Manuel López Obrador collaborated with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump to renegotiate the USMCA. Thus, the NAFTA agreement was updated and modernized. This action helped to assuage some investor concerns about López Obrador’s economic policies.
However, the energy policies of López Obrador’s government generated concerns internationally. In addition, they triggered legal challenges and consultations under the USMCA. As a result, a dispute resolution panel could be formed if the U.S. and Canadian concerns are not adequately resolved.
Arca Continental is the second largest Coca-Cola bottler in the Americas. Its revenues were 57.039 billion pesos in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.4 percent. At the same time, its net income grew 10.2 percent to Ps. 4.144 billion.
USMCA on renewable energies
In 2026, the first comprehensive review of the USMCA will take place. This process will be triggered five years after the entry into force of the agreement. At this stage, the parties will have to meet to evaluate its performance and decide whether they wish to extend it beyond its initial 16-year term.
In addition, this process will be crucial, as it could lead to adjustments in key sectors for Mexico’s trade. These include the automotive, electronics, textile and agricultural sectors.
Arca Continental considered that the renewable energy sector could face extensive scrutiny. This is due to Mexican rules and policies that prioritize fossil fuels.
From Arca Continental’s perspective, this exercise, which will likely begin in late 2025, will define the direction of trilateral trade relations. The company also projected that it will have potential implications for the stability of supply chains and investment flows in Mexico.
Tariffs
The U.S. government announced the imposition of tariffs on goods imported from certain countries. In particular, tariffs on products from Mexico or Canada became effective on March 4, 2025, at a rate of 25%.
On the other hand, tariffs on products imported from China became effective on February 4, 2025.
Subsequently, on March 6, 2025, the U.S. government announced the suspension of tariffs on goods that meet the requirements of the USMCA.
Currently, the U.S. applies a tariff of up to 145% on imports of Chinese products. In addition, the White House reported last week that this rate could increase to 245%.
Meanwhile, China imposed a 125% tariff on its imports of U.S. products. However, in both cases there are some exceptions.