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Reino Unido causa aversión al riesgo


El peso cerró la sesión con una depreciación de 0.78% o 14.1 centavos, cotizando alrededor de 18.26 pesos por dólar, debido a un fortalecimiento generalizado del dólar frente a la mayoría de sus principales cruces.

Foto: BMV. Se espera un incremento de la aversión al riesgo en las sesiones previas al referéndum del Reino Unido programado para el 23 de junio.

Foto: BMV. Se espera un incremento de la aversión al riesgo en las sesiones previas al referéndum del Reino Unido programado para el 23 de junio.

Para el caso del peso mexicano, los inversionistas se encuentran a la espera de otros indicadores económicos y eventos relevantes que permitan conocer el riesgo de seguir adoptando posturas a favor del peso como en las dos sesiones anteriores. Cabe agregar que durante la sesión se observó un incremento en la demanda por activos libres de riesgo. Al cierre, los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años mostraron un retroceso de 2.6 puntos base, colocándose cerca de 1.67 por ciento.

Es importante recordar que hacia adelante, todavía se consideran relevantes los comentarios de Janet Yellen después del anuncio de política monetaria del 15 de junio y se espera un incremento de la aversión al riesgo en las sesiones previas al referéndum del Reino Unido programado para el 23 de junio. Aunque el mercado considera que una salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea es lo menos probable, dicho evento podría desencadenar un episodio de nerviosismo y fuertes pérdidas para las divisas de economías emergentes, en particular el peso mexicano por tratarse de la moneda más liquida de este grupo de países.

Hacia el cierre de la semana, se espera que el tipo de cambio muestre un comportamiento lateral, cotizando alrededor del nivel de 18.25 pesos por dólar. Hacia abajo, el soporte intermedio más importante se mantiene en el nivel de 18.10 pesos por dólar.

Durante la sesión, el peso tocó un mínimo de 18.0854 y un máximo de 18.3062 pesos por dólar. Por su parte, el euro alcanzó un mínimo de 1.1306 y un máximo de 1.1416 dólares por euro. Por su parte, el euro-peso alcanzó un mínimo de 20.5843 y un máximo de 20.7365 pesos por euro en las cotizaciones interbancarias a la venta.

A las 3:10 p.m. las cotizaciones interbancarias a la venta se ubicaron en 18.2588 pesos por dólar, 1.4483 dólares por libra y en 1.1317 dólares por euro.

Gabriela Siller; PhD
Director de Análisis Económico-Financiero.
Banco BASE

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