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Crece presión contra peso

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El peso cerró la semana con una depreciación de 0.69% o 12.8 centavos, cotizando alrededor de 18.61 pesos por dólar, luego de que los inversionistas continuaron especulando en contra de la divisa, debido a que se avecinan eventos económicos y políticos de relevancia. Entre estos eventos se destacan el anuncio de política monetaria de la Fed programado para el 15 de junio y el proceso electoral de Estados Unidos, ya que los días 7 y 14 de junio serán las últimas votaciones primarias en ese país.

Foto: Pixabay. El peso cerró la semana con una depreciación de 0.69% o 12.8 centavos, cotizando alrededor de 18.61 pesos por dólar.
Foto: Pixabay. El peso cerró la semana con una depreciación de 0.69% o 12.8 centavos, cotizando alrededor de 18.61 pesos por dólar.

Como evidencia de las presiones en contra del peso, del 25 al 31 de mayo las cifras del mercado de futuros de Chicago muestran que las posturas netas a la espera de una depreciación del peso pasaron de -47,460 a -55,615 contratos, cada uno de 500 mil pesos. Lo anterior implica un incremento de 17.18% en el número de contratos netos a favor del dólar estadounidense durante el periodo. Asimismo se observa aumento de las apuestas en contra del peso de 347.7% durante las últimas cuatro semanas.

Hacia el cierre de la semana, la probabilidad implícita de que la Fed suba su tasa de referencia el 15 de junio descendió a 4%, luego de que la nómina no agrícola de Estados Unidos mostró la creación de 38 mil posiciones laborales durante mayo, la peor creación de empleos desde septiembre de 2010. Aunque la mayoría de las divisas extendieron sus ganancias frente al dólar, el peso mexicano observó una apreciación moderada, manteniéndose en niveles cercanos a los de la sesión anterior. Debido a que los inversionistas todavía consideran probable que el tipo de cambio suba hacia 19.00 pesos por dólar, el peso fue la segunda divisa más depreciada entre los principales cruces durante la semana, por detrás de la libra esterlina que perdió 0.73%

Otras divisas como el yen japonés cerraron con un avance semanal de 3.46%, mientras el euro se recuperó 2.17% y el dólar canadiense avanzó 0.63%. Al inicio de la próxima semana, los mercados estarán atentos a los comentarios de Janet Yellen, quien el lunes a las 11:30 horas dará una conferencia acerca de la situación económica estadounidense y la política monetaria de la Reserva Federal.

Durante la semana, el peso tocó un mínimo de 18.3838 y un máximo de 18.7271 pesos por dólar. Por su parte, el euro alcanzó un mínimo de 1.1098 y un máximo de 1.1366 dólares por euro. Por su parte, el euro-peso alcanzó un mínimo de 20.4680 y un máximo de 21.1850 pesos por euro en las cotizaciones interbancarias a la venta.

A las 3:15 p.m. las cotizaciones interbancarias a la venta se ubicaron en 18.5971 pesos por dólar, 1.4516 dólares por libra y en 1.1363 dólares por euro.

Gabriela Siller; PhD
Director de Análisis Económico-Financiero.
Banco BASE

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