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Share of renewable energy in electricity will double in the US

The EIA projects that the share of renewable energy in the U.S. electricity generation mix will double by 2050.

Wind and solar generation are responsible for most of that growth.

Overall, the share of renewables is projected to increase as nuclear and coal generation declines and the share of natural gas generation remains relatively constant.

By 2030, renewables will collectively overtake natural gas to be the predominant source of generation in the United States.

Solar power generation (which includes photovoltaic (PV) and thermal technologies and both small-scale and utility-scale installations) will overtake wind power by 2040 as the largest source of renewable generation in the United States.

Renewable energy

Natural gas’s share of the U.S. electricity generation mix will remain at roughly one-third of total generation from 2020 to 2050.

At the same time, the share of natural gas in generation will remain stable although natural gas prices will remain low (at or less than $ 3.50 per million British thermal units, in real dollars) for most of the projection period. .

This stability occurs despite significant withdrawals of nuclear and coal generating units resulting from market competition, as market and regulatory factors induce increased generation of renewable electricity.

Natural gas

The ratio of generation to natural gas in the United States will remain relatively constant until 2050, as projected, and the contribution from the coal and nuclear fleets will be cut in half.

Until 2050, the share of electricity generation from renewable energy will double.

Wind power will be responsible for most of the growth in renewable generation from 2020 to 2024, accounting for two-thirds of the increase in that period.

After the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for the phase-out of wind power by the end of 2024, solar generation will account for nearly 80% of the increase in renewable generation through 2050.

The EIA assumes that utility-scale (and commercial) solar PV installations will receive a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) through 2023, which will then be reduced to 10% from 2024 and will last until 2050.

Also residential photovoltaic solar energy will receive 30% of ITC until 2023, which will expire in 2024.

Costs

Because the costs of renewable energy technology and natural gas prices are key determinants of these projections, the EIA explores cases of sensitivity with different levels of renewable costs and price trajectories for natural gas.

Consequently, the share of renewable technology in generation will be higher in the cases of Low cost of renewable energy and High resource of oil and gas, compared to the reference case, and the share of generation from renewable energy will be lower in the cases of High cost of renewables and Low cost of oil and gas.

 

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