Intercam Banco analysis of midterm elections in Mexico

An Intercam Banco analysis of the midterm elections in Mexico shows that, considering various polls, Morena would lose the absolute majority and would require allies to control Congress.

This Sunday the midterm elections for the renewal of the Chamber of Deputies will be held (June 6).

Above all, the latest polls, published by El Financiero, Reforma, Parametría and Varela y Asociados, showed little change with respect to electoral preferences in the last weeks of May.

Likewise, the fall in the last month of support for Morena and the Green Ecologist Party of Mexico (PVEM) in favor of parties such as Movimiento Ciudadano (MC) and the PRI was confirmed.

According to an aggregate of surveys that has been prepared since September 2020 (Oraculus.mx), the Morena party maintained a 41% preference in the last week of May, while the PVEM maintained 5% of the preferences and the PT fell from 4 to 3 percent.

Midterm elections

The party that attracted the most voters in recent weeks was MC (which went from 5% to 6% during May), although the growth was marginal.

On the other hand, the PRI slightly lost preferences, going from 19% to 18% in the last month and the PAN remained with the 17% average of preferences.

The PRD fell to 4% and the rest of the parties (FSM, RSP and PES) concentrate 6% of the average preferences, a gain compared to the 3% they held at the beginning of May.

Overall, the results for the midterm elections suggest that Morena alone could lose an absolute majority in Congress (50% plus one); majority that allowed them to make decisions such as the approval of the budget or the reform of laws.

However, it is likely that Morena will achieve an absolute majority through a coalition with the PVEM and the PT, with whom he currently holds the government.

Mexican Congress

According to some analysis of these midterm elections, there is a 33% probability that this same coalition will achieve the qualified majority (2/3’s parts of the congress, which it holds to date), which allows modifications to the Constitution and the appointment of important officials.

According to Intercam Banco, this implies that the probabilities have been diluted so that the government bench can make constitutional changes, in line with the objectives of the Executive.

Oraculus projections, based on the preferences measured by surveys and on the formulas for assigning representatives stipulated in the law, indicate that the Morenista bench would constitute around 45% of the Chamber of Deputies (range 41-49%), a slight increase compared to 44% projected at the beginning of May.

On the one hand, the PVEM maintains the 9% projected at the beginning of May, the PRI fell to 13% and the PAN remained at 17 percent.

The Citizen Movement could monopolize 3% of the seats in the Chamber, like the PRD; while the Labor Party would hold 8% and would be the fifth political force, behind Morena, PAN, PRI and PVEM.

In number of seats, the Morena + PVEM + PT coalition could obtain 313 seats (variation range 282-339); while the PAN + PRI + PRD would obtain 170 (variation range 139-196).